If you’d like to see one of your questions featured on the blog, feel free to send me an email.
Today’s question comes from Vincent.
Hi John,
Happy New Year! I’m writing with a process question. I’m watching your videos, earliest to latest editions, and I’m listening to your podcast as well. I’m gleaning nuggets here and there that I believe will prove helpful in seasons to come, and so thanks so much for the helpful information you’re providing the DFS community. In addition to the questions I asked about Saber Sim last week, and I hope you’ll have time to respond to those questions when you have an opportunity, I’ve also been thinking an awful lot about my process.
I’m wondering how much analytical research you do beyond the obligatory Vegas Odds and projections. For example, I would often start my weekly NFL DFS process with Vegas Odds and team totals, and then review player projections and $/P. I would then consult websites for match-up statistics and formulate my own color coded spread sheet to help me identify my core and budget players, and then finally build my own player pool. I would then finally start building for cash and GPP. This whole process would take me about six to eight hours depending on the week. Is this a realistic time frame? Or, am I doing something wrong? I feel like I’m wasting my time analyzing this stuff and there is better, more efficient way?
I’m planning on getting a Saber Sim subscription soon, but if I’m going to spend the money I want to make sure that I’m using the tool properly. After all, no subscription will help if I can’t get out of my own way. What do you think?
Thanks in advance for reading my questions and I hope you’ll have time to answer when you have a moment.
Regards,
Vincent
Hi Vincent,
Your process is solid, but what you’re doing is what everyone else is doing so it will lead to less than desirable results. The time spent should also be an area of focus to get your time spent more efficiently.
One thing that tripped me up when I was a struggling DFS player was analysis by paralysis so I ended up spending way too much time researching and not getting back the results that I wanted.
I think you’re talking about football.
Be careful with the Vegas totals, everyone uses this info and the 1st goal of the Vegas betting line IS NOT TO BE ACCURATE. Most people forget about that. The 1st goal of the Vegas betting is DIVIDING THE BETTING MARKET.
With that goal, there will be an inherent error in the number along with everyone using this as gospel leading to a lot of bad groupthink.
Quite frankly, I think it’s very lazy on the parts of tout sites that hang their hat on this metric.
More accurate representations can be found looking at what the teams do on an individual basis defensively.
- Start looking at which defenses are bad, then focus in on what they are bad at.
- For instance, the TB Bucs this year gave up close to 30 points a game, but had one of the best run defenses statistically, so what does that tell us about how to attack them?
- In the passing game! The numbers will support they had one of the worst passing defenses in the league and that bore out into fantasy production most of the season.
- I also like looking at home / away splits. Some teams perform much poorer on the road vs home.
- The 2018 Chiefs team allowed 18 points a game at home, but almost 35 on the road. No Vegas total is going to tell you that story.
Spend time figuring out how to think for yourself to find the metrics that you think move the needle then back that up with testing.
A tool like SaberSim is just that, a tool.
We aren’t going to be masters of our craft just expecting the tools to do all the work when we haven’t built a strong and efficient foundation or blueprint for that tool to work within.
Learning to think for myself and trusting my numbers was the #1 thing that took me from a losing/breakeven DFS player to a winning one.
Also, not all DFS players were built to play cash AND GPP, I’m certainly not one of them.
I am a terrible cash game player. Committing to GPP’s only was also a big step in the right direction for me. So be honest with yourself there, just because we CAN play both doesn’t mean we SHOULD play both.
If you can find good metrics to build rosters that are powered by what YOU think is best will lead to tremendous breakthroughs for you.
My research time for the sports I play is:
- NFL: about an hour a week
- MLB: 15 mins a day
- NBA: 15 mins a day
That might sound ridiculous, but that’s all I spend on each sport. I was able to get the times down to that amount by constantly chipping away the NOISE from the SIGNAL.
This also goes back to my “Occam’s Razor” approach to DFS. There are many ways to solve the DFS math problem of the day, but the SIMPLEST solution is usually the best.
Now by all means if you like spending more time researching and it’s fun for you, do it! This game has to be fun first and foremost.
You can always tell the players that will make it in this, it’s the ones that love the process win or lose. The players in it for the wrong reasons quickly wash out then take shots at those who kept going long after they quit.
I hope this helps you get pointed in the right direction and thanks for taking the time to watch the videos!
All the best,
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